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Introduction to Scenario Modelling
Introduction to Scenario Modelling

You can model scenarios with multiple rounds and an exit.

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Written by Support Team
Updated over a week ago

You can model scenarios with multiple rounds and an exit. This builds on top of the latest cap table, and when you are ready, you can also convert the modelled round into transactions.

This article will cover

You might also want to visit these related articles for the advanced steps:

🌊 Before getting started, have you checked that your most recent cap table in Ledgy reflects the latest data? If so, let's dive in!

📹 You can also get acquainted with this feature by watching the video below:

1. Create a new scenario

  • To start, go to Ownership > Scenarios and add your first scenario.

    • Depending on your subscription, you may create multiple scenarios and compare them easily.

  • Define the scenario default settings in the pop-up window.

    • Rounding Policy

      • Rounded share price vs share price without rounding

        If you select the rounded share price, Ledgy will round the price to 2 decimals. If you don't want to round the share price, Ledgy will calculate with 10 decimals. If you're comparing the results with your excel data, make sure you're using the same amount of decimals in both places.

      • Round the number of shares down

        If you select always to round the shares down, the number of shares will be rounded down, no matter the decimal. For example, 2.4 and 2.7 will both be rounded to 2. The setting, in other words, defines if the actual investment is always lower than the committed investment.

    • Fully-diluted number of shares

      • We have suggested presets based that are either Founder Friendly or Investor Friendly - you can always customize your own.

    • Convertibles only dilute existing stakeholders

      • Toggle on: Only the stakeholders involved in the cap table, before the modelled round, will be diluted. For the new stakeholders to not get diluted, they have to receive more shares. They receive more shares because the share price is lower than if the toggle was turned off. The round's share price is calculated using fully-diluted shares from before the round and converted loans.

        Share price = Pre-money valuation / (Pre-round fully-diluted shares + Converted loan shares)

      • Toggle off: the "new" stakeholders will be diluted as well. The round's share price is calculated using only the fully-diluted share number from before the round. This means that the share price is higher than if the toggle is turned on. The direct result of that is that the new stakeholders receive fewer shares than if the toggle was turned on.

        Share price = Pre-money valuation / Pre-round fully-diluted shares

    • New pool shares only dilute existing stakeholders

      • Toggle on: pre-round

      • Toggle off: post-round

  • After the scenario has been created with the initial settings

    • If you change your mind about the configuration, you can easily change these settings.

    • Want to test out the same scenario with a few tweaks? Use the duplicate scenario button to create a copy!

2. Model a new round

  • Name the round

  • Select Pre/Post valuation by clicking the Pre button, target round size, share class, and expected closing date

    • 💡 The date is important for calculating the interest of your convertibles if they have it.

  • Create a new share class or use an existing one

    • 💡 If you want to model a round with certain share class characteristics (e.g. anti-dilution, liquidation preferences, etc), you can create a new one on Ownership > Share classes before returning to the Scenarios page to select it from the list.

  • There are multiple types of transactions you can model. Click Add to select what you need:

    • Trigger convertibles

      • Click From transactions to trigger an existing convertible or ‘New convertible’ to create a new one for the round.

      • Note: Selecting From transactions will trigger all the existing convertible loans not converted. If, for any reason, one is not to be converted in this round, simply delete the individual transaction on this modelled round

      • 💡Check that the conversion parameters and interest settings for convertibles are correct. Ledgy will calculate the share price based on these. For a new convertible, you’ll be able to define these as you add the new convertible and edit them on the modelled round directly. If an existing convertible needs editing, you can do so on the original transaction on Ownership > Transactions page.

    • Investments

      • New investment

        • You can define the investment amount from new and existing investors.

        • Simply type the new investor details in the name field, or search for the name of an existing investor from the drop-down list.

      • Pro-rata investment

        • You can distribute an investment pro-rata across all or selected existing investors who are shareholders. This will take into account their current proportions of fully diluted percentages.

      • Add investment by a fixed percentage

        • If you are defending an existing investor’s position, once the investment by percentage has been created, click on the Three Dots to "Set pre-round percentage".

        • 💡All investments are eligible for a discounted share price. Once the investment has been added, click on the Three Dots to select "Discount share price".

      • Add pool

        • Similarly to investment by percentage, Pool sizes can be defined by percentage. You create a new pool and enter its fully diluted percentage.

        • Or you can also defend the position of an existing pool by clicking on using "Set pre-round percentage".

Now that you’ve modelled your round, let Ledgy do the hard maths! 🦾

Above the calculations, you will find the updated details on the following:

  • Pre/Post-money valuation,

  • Total round size,

  • Issue price,

  • the number of issued shares.

Below the calculations, you will also find the post-financing cap table.

You can see the dilution for any stakeholder here. There you will see the updated cap table with an extra column showing the 'Diluted Change' in green/red colour code.

3. Optional: Convert the modelled round

  • Once your new round has been confirmed (hurrah! 🎉), you can convert the modelled investments, convertibles and pools directly into transactions. Click on the arrows button on the right-hand corner to first review the transactions before actioning the conversion.

Can't get enough of scenario modelling? 😏 Neither can we!

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